JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29405
- Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/22/2003 9:49:10 AM
Well, first of all it's not 90.65%
You simply added all 8 hits and then say "UP 90.65%", which is incorrect.
If you were smart and bought all of the picks, held them for a week you would have made 11.33% not 90.65% since you have to divide the total from all 8 hits by those 8 hits. Filters will give a different result every day that you run them of course. It all depends. Do you have enoug money to buy all the hits, every day? If not, then you have to look at the losers vs the winners and calculate those odds as well.
If you only bought 1 stock then your odds were 50-50 that you will have made less than 2% for the week. That is why I always recommend at least 3, preferably 5 stocks be purchased in order to spread your risk.
That is also why my paper trades on Koliga.com vary substantially from what it looks like you might get by just off setting the date when you run the filter.
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JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29406
- Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/22/2003 11:29:26 AM
That is why there is a vast difference between paper trading and actual trading.
That statement makes absolutely no sense unless you consider back dating SF as paper trading.
IF you paperTRADE then you buy on paper JUST AS IF YOU PAID FOR THE STOCK. That is paper trading. I don't know how you do it, but I paper trade just as if I were actually buying and selling.
Offsetting the date on SF is NOT backtesting.
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jthehut
124 posts
msg #29415
- Ignore jthehut |
10/22/2003 2:56:32 PM
Joe G what about NOT getting filled and/or partial fills???
Trust me, it's MUCH EASIER on paper than in the "real" world, and the thing that's the hardest is #1 to get the fill and #2 to get the fill at a CERTAIN price.
I was a millionaire many times over on paper, but haven't done it yet in "real" life... ;(
Joe, I read most of your posts...and some I'll enjoy...but there is NO WAY you can say paper trading is the same as real trading! PT is good for an absolute beginner to get a feel for how to trade, but still comes short.
MY HO,
jabba-the-hut
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JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29420
- Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/22/2003 4:05:27 PM
I never said Paper Trading is the exact same thing as Money Trading.
I answered the statement that paper trading "is vastly different" from money trading. It is not vastly different.
I don't buy the partial fills and all that. I never have a problem with that.
Probably not in 99% of my trades do I have a problem with fills.
I don't buy stocks where only a very few shares are traded. I never deal in those.
When I place a buy I place it a bit above the last traded price because I want the stock and don't want to have to chase it. So I get my orders filled.
When I sell, I place my order the same way. A bit lower from the last trade because I want out and an I want out now.
So to me that is just not a very good argument vs the fact that I paper trade to try new ideas and new ways of trading. I may not be 100% in the ball park but paper trading is at least 90% like real trading.
Nobody ever tries to claim that the military training is like a real war. However that does not keep them from spending billions on training. It's the training that makes the difference.
It is the same with tennis, boxing and everything else. Practice makes perfect.
I have never seen a boxer get into the ring without training, and nobody can say sparring is the same thing as a million dollar fight.
I state over and over that you have to paper trade like you actually trade.
That precludes taking flyers on junk that you would never buy in real life.
It means you must start with a set amount of money, adding and subtracting just like it happens in real life. You must select your stocks just as if you were going to buy it with real bucks. Must keep your system as realistic as possible.
Train like you trade and trade like you train. That works!
The biggest difference is EMOTION. That is what breaks most traders and that is precluded in paper trading. However, knowing this traders must do everything they can to preclude it from their real trades as well.
The only way I know how to do that is with tested systems.
I don't test with my money. Not ever.
The biggest difference between proper paper trading and money trading is emotion.
It's hard to factor out fear and greed when dealing with real money.
However, it is precisely fear and greed that cause folks to lose money and that is precisely why I insist on sytematic trading instead of of-the-cuff trading.
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keithray
13 posts
msg #29425
- Ignore keithray |
10/22/2003 11:36:42 PM
Your right about the percentages being more like 11% instead of 90% if you were to buy all the stocks on the offset day. As an example, I was basing my percentage on buying one stock, holding it for 5 days, then buying the next stock and holding it 5 days, and etc. So, over a span of 40 trading days, the profit would be 90%.
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JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29426
- Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/23/2003 12:03:44 AM
Yeah, right. Whatever.
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #29429
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/23/2003 12:55:06 PM
Very intelligent answer there Joe G.
Once again, you have been exposed.
Market Red, go to bed...
Leave trading to those who trade with REAL MONEY.
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #29446
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 1:13:02 AM
RSI(2) says load the boat when the price goes green and holds with...
GENR sitting on lower LR, rsi(2) = .837
EASY sitting on lower BB, rsi(2) = 5.43
EXTR positive divergence, rsi(2) = 20.83
SONS positive divergence, rsi(2) = 22.44
Papertrade if you like but if you want to rake in real money profits, buy the stocks.
Always use money management:
http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=8558
AND DON'T BE GREEDY... BE HAPPY WITH A 5% OR BETTER PROFIT IN A WEEK OR LESS.
MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE.
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TheRumpledOne
6,529 posts
msg #29451
- Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/24/2003 11:02:59 AM
EXTR had good earnings and took off in premarket...
The other 3 didn't "hold green".
Making sure stocks hold green makes all the difference. Yes, I know it is "convulted" but it works.... LOL!
MAY ALL YOUR FILLS BE COMPLETE.
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JoeGrossinger
165 posts
msg #29454
- Ignore JoeGrossinger |
10/24/2003 12:33:21 PM
Folks are free to throw their money away if they want to in trying to catch falling knives. No problem for me.
I prefer stocks that show some sign of life and will make me money.
DFCT was kicked out by my MOAF filer along with EEC and DFCT.
The 3 should prove to be excellent money makers this coming week.
www.koliga.com
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