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oldsmar52 104 posts msg #115884 - Ignore oldsmar52	10/14/2013 11:30:09 AM I mentioned an option if you didn't like the "buy at open on Monday" method. Today was a rather big down opening & I'd said you might want to choose to wait & when the stock went below its Monday open you could put in a buy stop to get in at its original open price. That's what I did today & got in and out of CSIQ, DUST, HSOL, CPRX & STP with 2% on each. That was on Avery's original filter in this thread, not the one in the other thread that I think Kevin started. Anyone pay attention to that option? Frank
compound_gains 225 posts msg #116084 - Ignore compound_gains modified	10/19/2013 4:26:44 PM Filter: TRO STAT SCAN for SWING TRADERS Sort: twopcnt descending Start date: 09March2012 End date: 18October2013 Period: 84 weeks; 1.64 years Starting capital: $20,000 Investment: Compounded equal investment weekly in top 5 stocks Entry: Weekly opening price Exit: Sell limit or end of week close Commission: $6.95 x 2 for each trade Total trades: 420 Check picks w/o 14OCTOBER CSIQ High: 20.53% Close: 19% EVC High: 4.86% Close 1% HSOL High 4.78% Close -1% GMCR High 2.92% Close -4% PACB High 9.4% Close 7% Sell Limit Gain CWGR CAGR None 71.8% 0.65% 39.8% 1% -39.2% 0.59% -26.5% 2% -27.5% -0.38% -18.0% 3% -41.1% -0.63% -28.0% 4% -22.0% -0.30% -14.3% 5% -11.9% -0.15% -7.6% 6% 12.1% 0.14% 7.3% 7% 30.0% 0.31% 17.6% 8% 43.3% 0.43% 25.0% 9% 59.1% 0.55% 33.3% 10% 77.0% 0.68% 42.4% 15% 89.8% 0.77% 48.7% 20% 94.5% 0.08% 51.0% Two scenarios here: (1) I've done my back testing wrong; or (2) there's no way you can "nibble" small gains each week and make money using this filter. Raising the sell limit percent looks tasty, but can you tolerate the monster losses that happen from time to time? Don't have the time or interest to test a stop loss because that's a real manual job with SF to figure out which hits occurs first...sell limit, stop loss or neither. Update: Fixing some silly typos.
Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #116085 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA	10/19/2013 4:53:33 PM Compound: I am finding the same results as I manually back test this approach. I kept coding this in Stratasearch and getting negative returns - I was sure I was doing this wrong. Now I think the code is correct but the system is not as profitable as it appears. I keep getting high win % but the 1 in 7 big loss (usually between 10-20% on the week) and trading costs on each trade wipe out any gains. This is why a stop loss on this system is required, and you have to shoot for larger gains (like 3-5%) to offset the losses. Even at high gain targets (5%) and loose stops I think you are challenged over time to beat the market.
tennisplayer2 210 posts msg #116090 - Ignore tennisplayer2 modified	10/20/2013 12:17:10 AM Frank, did you have any big losing trades using this filter, since you held some stocks for a long time?
compound_gains 225 posts msg #116095 - Ignore compound_gains	10/20/2013 8:44:27 AM I'm cherry picking, but there are other examples. If I'm correct, FREE was top of the list for w/o 01 April. It opened @ $1.44 and never reached a 2% gain. If you had closed out the trade end of week you would have taken a 15% loss. Obviously if you were using some kind of stop loss your loss would have been less. Since then, FREE has never reached a 2% gain over $1.44 and It closed Friday @ $0.42 (-58% before commissions). So what if you happened to be in a phase where you're trading just five stocks? 20% of your equity has been tied up since April doing nothing and congratulations, right now you're sitting on a monster paper loss. Maybe you got lucky and didn't trade that week. Maybe it was earnings week for FREE (I didn't check) and you don't trade stocks in earnings week. Maybe, maybe, maybe. I think I do well day trading, but it's a grind and the concept of this filter is awesome IMO. But I have tried all kinds of combinations and I haven't been able to find anything that offers a respectable risk/reward. I will keep searching, however.
mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #116097 - Ignore mahkoh	10/20/2013 10:43:21 AM FREE had a 10 for 1 reverse stock split in February 2013. Prior to the week beginning April 1 FREE did not reach the 2 % limit 8 times out of 52 weeks. The average loss during those 8 weeks was 22.42%. Out of those 8 failures it closed profitable within 3 weeks only 3 times. I think I would have skipped FREE as a candidate.
johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #116098 - Ignore johnpaulca modified	10/20/2013 12:02:43 PM I ran FREE through my system, this had high risk written all over it but then so are penny stocks. Buy point was triggered at about $0.35 and this was last month
compound_gains 225 posts msg #116099 - Ignore compound_gains	10/20/2013 12:31:48 PM Rule #1: Admit when you're stupid. FREE was not top-of-list for w/o 01 April. Rule #2: Make sure you've had your morning coffee before you post so you don't show everyone you're stupid. It's really hard to back test and replicate a real world experience so who can say what's achievable or not? Gain or loss also depends on how you factor in commissions. For example, SNSS was the top listing w/o 11 February and peaked at +2.11%, so getting in at the opening price or lower technically gets you your 2% gain. But what if your entry was actually higher than the open because of the bid/ask spread? I also built commissions into my back testing and 2% gain test so based on the opening price plus commissions, SNSS would likely not have made a 2% gain that week or since. It opened @ $6.16 then and closed Friday @ $4.75. Again, maybe you got in below the open or you pay less than the $13.90 round trip commission I used. The size of your investment would also make a difference in your total cost, and no one can buy exactly the number of shares that match your equity...you always leave something unspent on the table. My back testing showed a high risk of loss using small percentage gains, which does not reconcile with the success that some have reported. What is particularly problematic for me is trying to understand the huge difference in results. But then again, I'm playing with what ifs.That being said, I wouldn't be rolling the dice with a $20,000 investment until my comfort level was a lot higher.
mahkoh 1,065 posts msg #116102 - Ignore mahkoh	10/20/2013 2:49:07 PM SNSS had 5 failures in the 52 weeks before the week of 2-11 with an average loss during those weeks of 6.62 %. Out of the five times it recovered with a profit in 3 weeks 4 times. I would have played SNSS. I think you're supposed to set the limit at the open + 2 %, not your entry + 2 %. If you want to incorporate commissions you should check statistics for maybe a 2.5 % gain from open: 6 failures, average loss 7.89 %, 4 recoveries in 3 weeks. SNSS closed 3 weeks later at 5.95 and reached a high during that week of 6.05.
johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #116108 - Ignore johnpaulca	10/20/2013 4:37:24 PM SNSS($4.75)...buyers are in this area down to about $4.53, you wanna see buyers buying at about $4.70

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