shillllihs
6,101 posts
msg #137850
- Ignore shillllihs |
8/26/2017 8:44:01 PM
Yes that is a big looming question and a good reason to stay away.
When it doesn't connect it's a doozy.
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jimvin
179 posts
msg #137851
- Ignore jimvin
modified |
8/26/2017 10:11:49 PM
Difference of opinion makes a horse race, and I'm no stranger to embarrassment, so since no one asked (and fewer care), my contrarian picks would be: FCAU, WERN, BRS, USAT, and TPX
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Mactheriverrat
3,173 posts
msg #137853
- Ignore Mactheriverrat
modified |
8/27/2017 2:40:01 PM
FCAU - nice uptrend - Could see a little bit of profit taking short term
BRS- still in downtrend
USAT - Near breakout
TPX - Uptrending
WERN - getting near breakout also
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IMHO!
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jimvin
179 posts
msg #137858
- Ignore jimvin |
8/27/2017 6:35:42 PM
Perhaps humble, but certainly informed and appreciated; as for BRS, it has a decent up-trend, and strong IFT and aroon, while TPX looks the weakest by my favorite indicators; I'd spread 20% even across the board, but that's my take on the picks; my concern for FCAU is profit-taking as it has a strong run-up going in to Monday...
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snappyfrog
749 posts
msg #137937
- Ignore snappyfrog |
9/2/2017 1:21:33 PM
Results: August 27, 2017
The S&P 500 was UP this week +1.37% and YTD UP +9.99%.
Stock - Open - High - Percentage
AA - $41.43 - $45.22 - +9.15%
CENX - $18.25 - $20.63 - +13.04%
MYOK - $45.60 - $46.80 - +2.63%
AROC - $10.40 - $10.60 - +1.92%
DVAX - $17.20 - $18.40 - +6.98%
All numbers are MAX profits that could have been made this week. None of us are good enough to hit top price any week.
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jimvin
179 posts
msg #137955
- Ignore jimvin |
9/3/2017 10:37:22 PM
And an unimpressive showing from applying the signals I prefer...
FCAU 14.81-15.13 +7.09%
WERN 32.00-33.45 +4.53%
BRS 8.71-8.85 +3.51%
USAT 5.75-5.60 -2.61%
TPX 61.32-62.20 +1.27%
They work fantastically well for a lot of models, but not applied to this one...
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Lapre506
48 posts
msg #138116
- Ignore Lapre506 |
9/12/2017 8:45:50 AM
So read this thread in it's entirety. If I missed it I apologize but did anyone ever decide where the sweet spot is for a stop loss? I saw Snappy in one post mention he uses a 10% and previously in this thread the gentleman that had a ton of success said he never used one at all. That seems crazy to me so there must be a happy medium that allows these stocks some flex room. I'm currently paper trading this method and I am impressed with the hit rate on it. But I don't want that 1 big loser to wipe out weeks of profit.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #138117
- Ignore pthomas215 |
9/12/2017 8:57:14 AM
your stop loss is what your risk tolerance is. some use 2% of the portfolio. I use very tight stops because it means to me I had a good decision but a less than optimal entry point.
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Lapre506
48 posts
msg #138120
- Ignore Lapre506 |
9/12/2017 10:17:59 AM
Well in this system I feel like a 2% stop loss would have you out of many of these trades way before they ever come back and hit their 1-2% profit mark. In that situation the only trades that would get through are the ones that immediately took off on Monday, or the ones that only slightly dipped on Monday. With a 2% stop loss you'd probably just about break even in this system because you'd be out of so many trades. If the stock crashes on Monday and stops you out at 2% then comes back later in the week to make it's 2% gain it'd be a losing trade for you in this system.
There must be a mathematically figured sound stop loss "sweet spot" for this particular system. I can put faith in the probabilities of stocks to hit their highs. If a stock has done it 50 out of 52 weeks then I can take comfort in the fact that I have a very good chance it does it this week. But you also cannot foresee the future and if I happen to be in one of the 2 out of 52 losing weeks I'd hope to get out with less then 3-5% lost. But does 3-5% give enough room for these weekly plays to play out?
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #138121
- Ignore pthomas215 |
9/12/2017 10:40:33 AM
I understand your point and it makes sense. There are some situations where just as you are getting the turn you stop out. Im sure some people do use mathematical formulas...I tend to use a mix of a 10 minute view foremost and also a 2 hour view for context. Im sorry I am not helping you--but I think there is a way you can enter without mathematical formulas. i have a land acquisition and development background--you make your margin on the buy end and stocks are no different.
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